Will the Wembley luxury flat bubble burst?

Wembley Park from Barn Hill this morning

Few local people are able to buy or rent the luxury flats that are being thrown up by Quintain and other developers in Wembley Park and it now looks doubtful if overseas investors will be interested.

Morgan Stanley warned this week that  prices of upmarket London flats could fall by as much as 20% this year reflecting the impact of stamp duty increases on buy-to-let homes, a weaker global economy and Brexit fears.

The Evening Standard quoted Trevor Abrahamson, head of Gentree International:

Asian buyers - from Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong and China - are walking away from their commitments to buy properties in, for instance, east London and None Elms. They would rather lose 10% than complete for purchase and lose a lot more, even before the developments are complete. The changes to buy to let is the 'straw that broke the camel's back.'

In pockets of London's newly developed areas, where there is a lot of speculative developments, the outcome could quickly turn nasty with buyers drying up, developers having to cut prices and investors dumping their newly acquired flats before construction of them has finished.

The area around Wembley Stadium is rapidly looking like a jumble of unchecked, speculative development rather than the pastel shaded mixture of homes and parks pictured in consultation documents of yesteryear. Dominated by rabbit hutch flats with high spec kitchens, private student accommodation and hotels, the regeneration is beginning to look high risk.

Coincidentally  RIBA have published a study of 'rabbit hutch' homes and concluded:

Based on our sample, the average new home in England is only 92% of the recommended minimum size.

The average one bedroom home from our sample of 1,159 homes across 41 sites
is 46 sqm. It is 4 sqm short of the recommended minimum for a single storey, one bedroom home for two residents.

4 sqm is just a number. But in lifestyle terms it means...
The equivalent of a single bed, a bedside table and a dressing table with a stool.

3 sqm is the equivalent of a 3 seat sofa and a desk and chair.

4 sqm is the space that allows you to work at home at the computer in the day and also have an extra sofa when you’ve got friends round in the evening. 4 sqm might not sound like much but it could make everyday life a lot more comfortable.

The average three bedroom home from our sample of 3,418 homes across 71 sites
is 88 sqm. It is 8 sqm short of the recommended minimum for a two storey, three bedroom home for five residents.

8 sqm is just a number. But in lifestyle terms it means...
The equivalent of a single bedroom and the furniture you’d expect to t comfortably within it.7 sqm is the equivalent of a galley kitchen and a coffee table. 8 sqm is the single bedroom you’re missing. It’s the space for a new arrival to the family, the space that means the kids have a room of their own or a spare room for a guest to stay over. It’s the space that could take the kitchen out of the lounge and the sounds
a and smells that go with it.